While the risk of a global recession is lower in the year ahead, two G7 economies dipped into recession at the end of 2023. And the future picture continues to be clouded by uncertainty, according to the experts polled in the World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists Outlook.

May 4, 2022 · The most widely accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. According to a forecast by The Conference Board, U.S. real GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022, down sharply from 6.9% growth in the last quarter of 2021.

Jan 16, 2023 · Since then, the World Bank has predicted a global recession for 2023, anticipating GDP growth of 1.7%, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. This outlook will provide the backdrop for the Forum's Annual Meeting that is taking place 16-20 January 2023 in Davos, Switzerland .

Jul 21, 2023 · This weekly round-up brings you the latest stories from the world of economics and finance. Top economy stories: US may already be in recession; Faster inflation in Japan may not spur looser monetary policy; China posts lower-than-expected Q2 growth.

The September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, the implications of high public debt levels, and the prospects for a new growth agenda.

Jan 15, 2024 · The global economy is expected to remain uncertain throughout 2024. The World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook finds that just over half of chief economists anticipate the global economy to weaken this year.

Aug 22, 2019 · High on both agendas will be an analysis of the latest economic indicators that seem to point to an acceleration of the global economic slowdown and the risk of a looming global recession. The leaders will be confronted with difficult questions - including whether the fears of a recession are duly justified.

Mar 24, 2023 · Whereas a standard recession hits all sectors at approximately the same time, a rolling recession means some industries are contracting as others expand. Sector-by-sector data seems to confirm this, with the S&P Global US Sector Purchasing Managers’ Index - a gauge that tracks output across seven US sectors - showing a mixed picture.

Apr 20, 2022 · Table 1 shows the historical probability of a recession occurring within the next one and two years, conditional on contemporaneous measures of CPI inflation and the unemployment rate. The results indicate that lower unemployment and higher inflation significantly increase the probability of a subsequent recession.

Dec 6, 2024 · Another thing traditional economic indicators don’t capture – this researcher says “the economy” for voters in the US presidential election was about values and meanings, as much as jobs and money. That meant it could be used to appeal based on a shared identity that excluded certain groups of people.