Rising oil prices threaten Fed's easing strategy
WEB19 hours ago · Inflation break-evens in the U.S. climbed further with the rise in crude oil prices. Although the 5-year break-even at 2.20% isn't high enough yet to threaten the Fed's easing plans, a 20 basis point rise over the past four weeks is significant. Higher oil prices put pressure on the Fed's outlook. While Fed officials haven't explicitly changed ...
How Data Revisions Shape the Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions
WEBJan 31, 2024 · Fed Governor Christopher Waller's reflections underscore a key challenge: the necessity of making decisions based on the data available at the moment, despite its potential for later revision.This issue becomes particularly thorny when these revisions are not minor adjustments but game-changers, significantly altering the economic landscape perceived by policymakers.
Soft landing for the Fed, but Americans still struggle
WEBSep 3, 2024 · In his remarks last month, given at an annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell underscored how the Fed’s sharp rate hikes succeeded much more than most economists had predicted in taming inflation without hammering the economy — a notoriously difficult feat known as a “soft landing”. “Some argued that getting ...
Assessing the Shift in US Economic Exceptionalism Amid Global …
WEBMay 8, 2024 · Recent discussions around the perceived "end of US exceptionalism" have sparked interest and debate among economists and market watchers. This shift in narrative follows a series of economic indicators that suggest a mild slowdown in the US economy. Notably, the April non-farm payroll (NFP) growth was …
FOMC cuts interest rates and looks at the labor market
WEBSep 21, 2024 · Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell initiated a rate cut today, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.0%. The amended statement emphasized the labor market and the goal of maximum employment. The …
US unemployment rises despite positive indicators
WEBOct 3, 2024 · Unemployment and layoffs. The rising unemployment rate is a cause for concern. However, this increase is not primarily caused by mass layoffs. The employment ratio of 24- to 54-year-olds is robust compared to previous recession periods. Initial jobless claims also remain low, although they may have reached their lowest point for this cycle.
US consumer growth shows stability in August
WEBSep 28, 2024 · Real personal consumption expenditures in the U.S. rose 0.15% month-on-month in August. This figure suggests a strong third quarter for consumer spending. If growth in September is similar, it would translate to quarter-on-quarter growth of over 3% on an annualized basis. Experts expect consumer demand to remain resilient.
Federal Reserve Likely to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points
WEBSep 10, 2024 · Barring a crash in the risky asset market between now and September 18, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. They are very likely to signal that further cuts could follow and that they would be open to more cuts if the "totality of the data" (to use Jay Powell's words) warrants it. Fears that the Fed is not accommodative ...
Federal Reserve Adjusts Easing Cycle Timeline, Impacting Global …
WEBApr 30, 2024 · Recent economic data from the United States has significantly shifted projections regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, pushing the expected commencement of the Fed's easing cycle from December 2024 to 2025.This adjustment is a reflection of stronger than anticipated economic indicators, suggesting that the next policy move might be an interest rate hike rather than a cut.
What frequent shocks and improved risk management mean for …
WEBAug 23, 2024 · These risks can be addressed through targeted measures such as reallocating capital, providing liquidity or changes in fiscal and monetary policy. A key difference between now and a decade or two ago is that investors now experience more frequent and more disruptive shocks, while at the same time, our ability to …